Australia and Philippines near defence pact amid South China Sea tensions

Australia and the Philippines are expected to sign a major defence cooperation agreement in Manila on Sunday, in a move aimed at strengthening the Philippine navy and coastguard. The deal is set to be announced as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese meets senior Philippine officials on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit. It comes as tensions remain high between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea.

The agreement is expected to expand reciprocal military access and information sharing between the two countries. It is also intended to support the Philippines' maritime security capabilities, particularly its navy and coastguard. The timing of the signing underlines how closely defence diplomacy is now tied to the regional dispute over control of the strategically important waterway.

The Philippines has been at the front line of efforts by US allies to counter China's maritime influence in the South China Sea. The waterway is a major global shipping route and contains reefs and atolls that are also rich in marine life. Several Southeast Asian states have overlapping claims there, while China claims almost all of the sea through its nine-dash line, a claim it says is based on historic rights.

That claim was ruled to have no legal basis under international maritime law by a tribunal in The Hague a decade ago, but China has rejected the ruling. Under international law, the Philippines has an exclusive economic zone extending 370 kilometres from its coast, yet China continues to contest waters within that area. The dispute has made the South China Sea one of the most sensitive security flashpoints in the region.

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The planned agreement also fits into broader coordination among Australia, the United States, the Philippines and Japan, an informal defence grouping sometimes referred to as "the Squad". Defence ministers from those countries met in Cebu on 28 October, and officials later said the group would establish a Combined Coordination Centre. That centre is expected to serve as a joint hub to help build the capacity of the Philippine navy and coastguard.

The latest move reflects a wider effort by regional partners to increase military exercises and improve interoperability in response to China's growing maritime presence. Australia has been deepening security ties in the Indo-Pacific as part of that broader strategy, while the Philippines has sought more support for its maritime forces. The agreement therefore carries significance beyond bilateral relations, because it adds to a network of security cooperation around one of Asia's most contested waterways.

The South China Sea dispute has long shaped defence planning across the region, but recent developments have sharpened the focus on practical support for the Philippines' maritime forces. The planned pact suggests that Canberra and Manila are moving from general alignment to more structured cooperation. It also shows how the ASEAN summit has become a venue for security diplomacy as well as regional political discussion.

What remains unclear is the full legal and operational detail of the agreement, including how much access and information sharing it will allow in practice. It is also not yet clear how China will respond to the deal or to the wider coordination among the four countries. The key point to watch is whether the agreement leads to more joint activity at sea and further steps to strengthen the Philippines' maritime defences.

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