Uganda military arrests deepen as succession tensions grow around Muhoozi Kainerugaba

At least a dozen Ugandan generals and senior officers have been arrested over the past 15 months under Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the country's army chief and son of President Yoweri Museveni. The arrests have unsettled the upper ranks of the military and intensified scrutiny of the succession question in Uganda. They come as Gen Kainerugaba has signalled that he intends to run for president in the next election.

The latest tensions sharpened this week when Gen Kainerugaba threatened Vice-President Jessica Alupo with dismissal and possible arrest, while suggesting that he should take her position. The ruling National Resistance Movement, or NRM, denied reports that its senior leadership had rejected a proposal to back him as the next president, calling those claims completely false. The party also said its top leadership met on 10 November to discuss political, social and economic issues.

The arrests have prompted competing interpretations inside and outside Uganda's political establishment. Some observers see them as part of an effort to sideline military officers who may oppose Gen Kainerugaba's ambitions. Others view the detentions as evidence of an anti-corruption drive aimed at holding senior commanders to account.

What is clear is that the military and the ruling party remain central to the question of who will follow Mr Museveni, who has ruled Uganda for four decades. Gen Kainerugaba, 52, is widely regarded as a possible successor, but his path appears to be meeting resistance within the NRM. Reports from a recent closed-door meeting suggested that a vote on whether to position him as Museveni's successor was abandoned after some members spoke against the proposal.

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Another account said most of those who spoke backed his potential presidency, although some questioned whether he was ready for civilian leadership. The conflicting accounts underline the sensitivity of the issue inside the party. The succession debate matters because Uganda's political order has long been shaped by the relationship between the presidency, the ruling party and the security forces.

Gen Kainerugaba's position gives him considerable influence within the military, while the NRM remains the main vehicle for political power. Any sign of division between those institutions can have implications well beyond party politics, including for stability inside the armed forces. The arrests also add to a broader pattern of concern about how dissent is managed within Uganda's security establishment.

Senior officers are normally expected to be among the most protected figures in the system, so the detention of generals carries particular weight. In that context, the fact that at least a dozen have been arrested over 15 months suggests a sustained internal crackdown rather than a single isolated episode. For now, it remains unclear whether the arrests are primarily disciplinary, political, or part of a wider anti-corruption effort.

It is also not clear how much support Gen Kainerugaba has inside the NRM, despite his public signalling that he wants to run. What to watch next is whether the party settles its succession debate more openly, whether further arrests follow, and whether the tensions around the vice-presidency and the military deepen further.

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