Leaked Rosstat records point to far higher Russian war deaths in Ukraine

Leaked records from Russia's state statistics agency suggest the country's military losses in Ukraine are far higher than Moscow has publicly acknowledged. The files, which were obtained by two hacking groups, indicate that at least 450,000 Russians had died in the war up to August this year. The material also points to more than 4,000 foreign citizens among the dead, including people believed to have come from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Nepal, Colombia and Nigeria.

The records were linked to Rosstat, the federal statistics service, and were said to have been taken from its network after cyberattacks between October 29 and November 1. Rosstat confirmed it had been hit by cyberattacks during that period, but said it found no evidence that its databases had been compromised or that protected data had leaked. The hacking groups involved said on November 1 that they had broken into the network and shared the files with several news organisations, although the data has not been independently verified.

The leaked material appears to show a war toll that falls heavily on older men, poorer regions and foreign recruits. According to the records, about 410,000 deaths were directly classified as war-related, while another 42,000 fighting-age men were confirmed dead in court because their bodies had not been recovered. Analysts cited in reporting on the files said the total could rise further once late paperwork is counted, with one estimate putting the eventual figure at about 550,000 by August.

Moscow does not officially publish its military death toll, which makes any such leak politically sensitive and difficult to assess. The disclosure matters because casualty figures shape both the domestic and international understanding of the war's cost. If the records are accurate, they would suggest a level of loss far beyond anything the Russian authorities have admitted publicly.

That would also underline the scale of manpower pressure on the Russian war effort and the extent to which foreign recruits have been drawn into the conflict. The files have been treated by some analysts and media outlets as credible, even though they remain unverified. One Russia expert said there was no longer any doubt that the leaked database was authentic, while also questioning whether the data had been manipulated to raise the death toll.

The same analysis argued that such manipulation would be highly unlikely, but the question has not been resolved independently. The leak also highlights the role of cyber operations in the wider war. The Belarusian Cyber Partisans and Silent Crow said they had accessed Rosstat's network, and the episode fits a pattern in which digital intrusions are used to expose or contest official narratives.

Rosstat's denial of a database compromise leaves a gap between the agency's account and the claims made by the hacking groups. What remains unclear is the full provenance of the files, whether any figures were altered, and how much of the material can be independently checked. It is also not clear how many of the reported deaths have already been formally registered in Russia's civil system, which can lag by months or years.

The next point to watch is whether further verification emerges from independent analysts or whether Russian officials respond with more detail about the cyberattacks and the alleged leak.

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