IMF warns Middle East war will slow Africa's growth and lift inflation

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the war in the Middle East is likely to slow economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa and push up living costs again in 2026.

In its latest regional outlook, titled Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure, the IMF said growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to ease slightly to 4.3% this year, while median inflation is forecast to rise to 5.0% by the end of 2026.

The fund said the pressure is being felt through higher food, fuel and fertiliser prices, as well as more difficult transport conditions and weaker tourism.

Montford Mlachila, deputy director of the IMF African Department, said the conflict had affected several parts of the economy.

The warning matters because many economies in the region had only recently begun to recover.

The IMF said sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 with momentum after growth of 4.5% in 2025, its fastest pace in 10 years.

The report said countries including Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia and Rwanda had led that recovery, with growth above 6% and inflation falling to about 3.5%.

It also said public debt levels had started to decline.

The IMF said the latest shock adds to a series of pressures since the pandemic.

#IMF #subSaharanAfrica #inflation #foodprices #MiddleEastwar