Armenia's Pashinyan wins election but falls short of supermajority

Armenia's ruling Civil Contract party has won the country's parliamentary election, but the result falls short of the two-thirds majority Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan wanted for a constitutional referendum linked to a peace deal with Azerbaijan. Final results from the Central Election Commission showed Civil Contract taking 49.8% of the vote with all polling stations counted. The vote was held on 7 June and was widely seen as a test of Pashinyan's handling of the peace process and Armenia's shift away from Russia towards the West.

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Pashinyan declared victory in the early hours of Monday, calling the result an "historic victory" and saying the Armenian people had voted for regional prosperity and co-operation. He said he hoped the outcome would draw a positive response from Turkey and Azerbaijan, while also pledging to continue building ties with both the West and Russia. The party's share was down from 54% in the 2021 election, according to the results cited by the election commission.

The final tally also showed a stronger-than-expected performance by three main pro-Russian opposition groups, which won a combined 37% of the vote and are preliminarily on track to enter parliament alongside Civil Contract. The final distribution of seats has not yet been confirmed. Pashinyan's main rival, Samvel Karapetyan, a Russian-Armenian billionaire who founded Strong Armenia last year, accused the government of rigging the vote.

The Armenia Alliance also said Pashinyan's victory claim was premature and amounted to pressure on the election commission. The result matters because it leaves Pashinyan without the supermajority needed to call the referendum demanded by Azerbaijan as part of the peace process. Azerbaijan has been at war with Armenia intermittently since the late 1980s, and the referendum is tied to efforts to normalise relations between the two countries and with Turkey, a key ally of Azerbaijan.

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The election was Armenia's first general vote since its crushing military defeat by Azerbaijan in 2023, making the outcome especially significant for the country's security and foreign policy direction. Pashinyan first came to power in the 2018 Velvet Revolution and has since presented himself as a reformer seeking to reduce Armenia's dependence on Moscow. He has argued that peace with Azerbaijan and normalisation with Turkey could improve security and open economic opportunities, while also allowing Armenia to maintain ties with the West and Russia.

The latest result suggests that approach still has support, but the opposition's showing indicates there remains backing for a more Russia-friendly line. What remains unclear is the final seat distribution in parliament and whether opposition parties will be able to slow or reshape the government's agenda. It is also not yet clear how Moscow, Ankara and Baku will respond in practical terms to the result.

The main issue to watch is whether Pashinyan can turn the election win into progress on the peace track without the constitutional majority he had sought.

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