Colombia heads to run-off as Abelardo de la Espriella and Ivan Cepeda vie for presidency

Colombia is heading to a presidential run-off on Sunday, with far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella facing left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda in a contest that has sharpened the choice between continuity and change. The vote comes less than a month after the first round, in which neither candidate won the majority needed to avoid a second round. The result will determine who succeeds outgoing President Gustavo Petro.

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De la Espriella took the lead in the first round on May 31 with 43.7 percent of the vote, while Cepeda followed with 40.9 percent. The gap was narrower in the earlier summary of the race, but the confirmed count left de la Espriella ahead and both candidates short of the 50 percent threshold. Petro initially questioned the preliminary count and accused private firms of manipulating the result in favour of the right-wing candidate, before Cepeda later said there were no irregularities.

The European Union's Election Observation Mission also said it found no evidence of malfeasance. The two candidates are offering sharply different approaches to crime, violence and the state's role in dealing with armed groups. Cepeda has pledged continuity with Petro's government, which has focused on anti-poverty measures and negotiations with armed groups.

De la Espriella has promised a break from establishment politics and a shift towards more military-led responses, while moving away from negotiated solutions. Those differences have made the run-off a test of whether voters want to extend Petro's political project or reverse course. The election matters beyond the immediate contest because Colombia is one of South America's largest countries and has long faced the challenge of violence linked to armed groups and organised crime.

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The next president will inherit the political and security legacy of Petro's administration, including its emphasis on talks and social policy. The outcome is also likely to shape relations between the state and armed actors, as well as the tone of domestic politics after a closely fought first round. The first-round result was notable because Cepeda had been leading in pre-election polling before the May 31 vote.

De la Espriella's first-place finish was therefore seen as an upset, and it came after right-wing voters were split among several candidates in the initial ballot. That fragmentation helped create a tighter race heading into the run-off, even though current polling has suggested de la Espriella remains ahead. Cepeda is a left-wing senator and has positioned himself as the candidate most closely aligned with Petro's agenda.

De la Espriella, by contrast, is described as a far-right outsider and has campaigned on a more hardline approach to public security. Their profiles underline the broader political divide in the country, where debates over peace talks, poverty reduction and law-and-order policies remain central. What remains unclear is whether the polling lead for de la Espriella will hold on election day and how turnout may affect the final result.

It is also not yet clear how voters who backed other right-leaning candidates in the first round will split in the run-off. The main thing to watch is whether Colombia chooses continuity with Petro's approach or a sharper turn towards military-led security policy.

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