CSIS study says Russia has suffered about 1.4 million casualties in Ukraine war

A new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies says Russia has accumulated about 1.4 million casualties since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The estimate includes soldiers killed, wounded and missing, with deaths put at between 400,000 and 450,000. The report also says Ukraine has suffered heavy losses, underscoring the scale of attrition in the war.

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The study was published on 2 July and says Russian losses are the largest suffered by a major power in a conflict since World War II. It adds that Russian deaths in Ukraine are more than nine times the total losses recorded by the Soviet Union and Russia in all wars fought since 1945. The same assessment estimates Ukraine's casualties at between 525,000 and 625,000, bringing the combined total for both sides to more than 2 million.

The report says the pace of fighting has become increasingly costly for Russian forces. It estimates that Russia is losing between 30,000 and 34,000 troops a month in 2026, while recruiting about 27,000 new soldiers over the same period. That gap, according to the study, is affecting Moscow's ability to replace personnel and sustain momentum on the battlefield.

The researchers also say Russian advances on key fronts have slowed to between 50 and 90 metres a day, a rate they compare with the slowest offensives of the First World War. The findings matter because they point to a war of attrition that is reshaping military and political calculations on both sides. Heavy losses can affect force readiness, recruitment, equipment use and the ability to hold or gain territory.

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The report also suggests that the conflict remains highly lethal despite the absence of a decisive breakthrough, which has implications for future negotiations and for the wider security environment in Europe. The study places the war in a broader historical context by comparing it with the scale of losses seen in World War II. It says the current conflict has already produced a level of military attrition not seen in a major-power war for decades.

The report also highlights battlefield conditions such as trenches, minefields, anti-tank obstacles and extensive drone use, which it says have made large areas of the front extremely dangerous and slowed movement. What remains unclear is how closely the estimates match official figures, which are not independently verifiable from the information provided. The report does not indicate any immediate change in the battlefield situation beyond the continuing grind of the war.

The key issue to watch is whether Russia's recruitment can keep pace with losses and whether the slowing advance alters the next phase of the conflict.

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