US-Iran memorandum set to expire amid stalled talks and Gulf shipping tensions
The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is due to expire on Monday, with little sign that either side is ready to extend it. The agreement was intended to end fighting that had disrupted Gulf commercial movement and oil and gas exports, but both sides have accused each other of violating it for weeks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Saturday that Tehran had not yet decided whether to restart negotiations with Washington.
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According to the supplied material, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan are still exchanging messages with Iran as the deadline approaches. Araghchi also said Iran was working on a separate arrangement with Oman to establish new shipping routes for the Strait of Hormuz, although he said that would only be possible if a political solution was reached. On the US side, President Donald Trump told supporters in New York on Friday that the United States would soon claim the strategically important waterway for itself.
The agreement was signed on 17 June by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian after rare high-level talks hosted by Pakistan. It was meant to bring an end to more than three months of war that had killed thousands and severely affected commercial movement in the Gulf. The text also left complex issues, including Iran's nuclear programme, to be dealt with later.
It said the two sides would declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations and work toward a final deal within 60 days, with the possibility of extension by mutual consent. The expiry matters because the deal was tied not only to the fighting itself but also to wider regional security and trade. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most sensitive shipping routes, and the supplied material says Iran was to clear mines from the waterway and allow ships to pass without charge for 60 days.
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The US, in turn, was to end its naval blockade within 30 days, remove forces from near Iran after a final deal, and begin work on a reconstruction and development package for Iran worth at least $300bn. The arrangement also had broader diplomatic ambitions. It was designed to secure a permanent end to the war on all fronts and to be endorsed by the UN Security Council.
The text says the agreement also aimed to end conflict in Lebanon, showing that the talks were not limited to the immediate US-Iran confrontation. That wider scope helps explain why the expiry is being watched closely by regional governments and by actors involved in mediation. The current situation reflects a fragile process that has already been under strain for weeks.
Both sides have accused the other of breaching the terms, but the supplied material does not specify which alleged violations are being cited. The fact that Qatar and Pakistan are still relaying messages suggests diplomatic channels remain open, even if no decision has been announced on restarting formal negotiations. What happens next remains unclear.
It is not known whether the memorandum will be extended, replaced by a new arrangement, or allowed to lapse. It is also unclear whether the separate Oman shipping discussions will progress, or whether the Strait of Hormuz will again become a point of immediate tension if the political track stalls.
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