Ukraine says Russia plans second formal mobilisation wave of 600,000 troops

Ukraine says Russia is preparing to mobilise 600,000 additional soldiers across 2026 and 2027, in what it describes as a second formal wave of conscription. The claim was made by Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate and Foreign Intelligence Service, which said the Russian leadership had already taken the decision. According to the Ukrainian assessment, 300,000 troops would be called up this year and another 300,000 in 2027.

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The reported plan comes as Kyiv says Moscow is facing mounting battlefield losses and a sharp decline in voluntary recruitment. Ukrainian intelligence said the trigger was a combination of heavy losses, a loss of military initiative and falling numbers of contract signings. It said Russia's recruitment pool has narrowed sharply in several regions, with the main sources of voluntary recruits - including debtors, prisoners and migrants - declining by 30% to 40% compared with 2025.

Ukrainian officials said the pressure is visible in regional recruitment figures. In Kurgan region, monthly recruitment targets have reportedly been met at 57% to 69% of the goal since the start of the year. In Volgograd region, the number of potential recruits was said to be down 40% year on year.

The lowest figures were reported in the Oryol and Vladimir regions, as well as in Dagestan. Ukrainian intelligence also said efforts to recruit students into the armed forces had failed, while internal Russian documents cited by Kyiv pointed to rising public dissatisfaction with the war and a resulting decline in enlistment. The reported mobilisation plan matters because it suggests Russia may be preparing for a prolonged war of attrition.

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Ukraine's General Staff has said Russian losses since the February 2022 full-scale invasion have exceeded 1.4 million killed and wounded. Ukrainian intelligence estimated that Russia lost around 240,000 troops in the first half of 2026 alone, including 140,000 killed or severely wounded, while 232,000 people signed contracts with the Russian armed forces in the same period. The figures, if accurate, would underline the scale of manpower pressure facing Moscow as it continues its war against Ukraine.

The report also points to a broader legal and administrative shift inside Russia. Ukrainian intelligence said Russia has expanded eligibility for military recruitment, including people with unexpunged criminal convictions under 11 additional articles of the criminal code. That change would widen the pool available for call-up at a time when voluntary enlistment is weakening.

The reported move also reflects the Kremlin's need to sustain force levels after more than two years of heavy fighting and repeated recruitment drives. There has been no independent confirmation of the mobilisation plan from Russian authorities in the material provided. It is also unclear how quickly any call-up would be implemented, how many of those mobilised would reach the front, or whether the reported figures could change.

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