France forecasts 30-year low wine harvest after severe heat and drought

French winemakers are forecasting a 30-year low in wine production after a summer of severe heat and drought damaged vineyards across the country. Initial estimates suggest this year's harvest will come in at just under 34 million hectolitres, according to the agriculture ministry. The forecast comes after what was described as France's hottest ever recorded summer.

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The government's farming statistics body, Agreste, said production is expected to be 6% lower than last year and 17% below the 2021-2025 average. It said the decline was driven partly by a reduction in the number and size of vineyards, but mostly by extreme weather conditions. Agreste said the summer was particularly hot and dry, with soil drought intensifying across the country and heatwaves causing localised sun scald, scorching, defoliation and wilting of grapes.

The impact has varied by region, but several major wine areas have been hit hard. Champagne, where harvesting began unusually early in mid-August, is forecast to produce almost half as much as last year. The Jura region is expected to see a 37% loss, while Burgundy-Beaujolais production is projected to be about one-third lower.

Winemakers in Bordeaux, Languedoc-Roussillon, the south-east and the south-west reported higher harvests than last year, but most regions remain below their five-year average. The forecast matters because wine is one of France's best-known agricultural exports and a major part of rural economies in several regions. A harvest at this scale would add to concerns about how repeated heatwaves and drought are affecting European agriculture.

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It also raises questions about quality, with some growers warning that smoke taint from wildfires could affect grapes in addition to the direct damage from heat and water stress. The outlook had been more positive earlier in the year, after heavy spring rains encouraged grape growth. That changed as the hot, dry summer progressed and conditions deteriorated.

Agreste said the harvest estimate reflected the latest available information, but some winemakers said it was still too early to make firm predictions because picking was continuing in parts of the country. What remains unclear is how final production figures will compare with the current estimate once harvesting is complete. The extent of any quality problems, including possible smoke taint, has also not been fully established.

The next key update will be whether the final harvest confirms the 30-year low forecast and how individual regions perform against expectations.

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