US warns Taiwan Strait conflict could be globally disastrous ahead of expected Trump-Xi summit

The top United States diplomat in Taipei has warned that any conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a larger impact on the global economy than the Second World War. Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, made the remarks at a defence forum in Taipei on Wednesday. He said the issue of securing peace in the Taiwan Strait was among the most urgent facing the region.

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Greene linked the warning to the expected meeting later this month between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in the United States. He said the summit offered an opportunity to strengthen strategic stability and avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations. In his remarks, he also said the United States was pursuing vigorous diplomacy at the highest levels as part of its effort to preserve peace in the Indo-Pacific.

The comments come as Washington remains Taiwan's main international backer and arms supplier, despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. Greene said the United States was reinforcing its presence and partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to maintain a favourable regional balance of power. He also said Washington was supporting Taiwan's efforts to improve its ability to defend itself.

The warning carries added weight because it comes at a time of heightened attention to cross-strait security and ahead of a high-level US-China summit. Taiwan's government, led by President William Lai Ching-te, has been increasing defence spending and military modernisation, citing the threat from China. The administration has budgeted defence spending for next year to exceed 1 trillion Taiwan dollars for the first time.

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The remarks underline how Taiwan remains a central point of tension in US-China relations and a major test of regional stability. Beijing claims the island as its own, while Taipei rejects those claims and continues to rely on outside support for security and deterrence. The summit is now being watched for signs of whether both sides can reduce the risk of miscalculation at a sensitive moment.

What remains unclear is whether the upcoming meeting will produce any concrete steps on Taiwan or broader security issues. Greene did not announce any new policy changes, but his comments suggest Washington is seeking to use the summit to lower tensions rather than escalate them. The main focus now is whether the two sides can preserve strategic stability as Xi's visit approaches.

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