Ethiopia rebel alliance forms as Tigray fighting escalates

Seven Ethiopian armed groups have announced a new alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, while fighting in the north has intensified with reported drone strikes and the seizure of a key airport in Mekelle. The grouping, called the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, was announced on Sunday and brings together movements with different histories, territorial claims and enemies. The developments have raised fresh concern that separate conflicts in Ethiopia could become more closely linked.

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According to the supporting report, the alliance includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement. A senior TPLF official was asked whether the statement amounted to a declaration of war and did not give a direct answer, instead prompting discussion about whether the alliance could become a coherent military force. The founding statement was read by Fano commander Zemene Kassie on Tigrai TV, and the alliance said it would establish a transitional administration once Abiy is removed.

The battlefield situation in Tigray has also worsened. On Tuesday, drones reportedly struck two schools in Alamata, in southern Tigray, and the town's mayor said 14 civilians were killed and 22 wounded. The account could not be independently verified, and the federal government did not immediately comment.

By Wednesday, Tigrayan forces were reported to have seized Alula Aba Nega International Airport in Mekelle, with an airport employee saying staff had been told there were no flights. The reported escalation matters because Tigray remains one of Ethiopia's most sensitive conflict zones. The region only emerged from a two-year war in November 2022, and the earlier conflict was among the deadliest of this century, with an African Union mediator estimating about 600,000 deaths as the area was pushed to the brink of famine.

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The latest claims have revived fears that the peace arrangement that ended that war may be under renewed strain. The new alliance also reflects the wider fragmentation of Ethiopia's armed opposition. The TPLF dominated national politics for 27 years before Abiy came to power in 2018 and pushed it to the margins.

In November 2020, federal forces, backed by Eritrean troops and Amhara forces, went to war with the TPLF, and the current tensions are unfolding against that unresolved history. The report says Abiy's spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, accused the alliance members of having collaborated for some time with Eritrean financial backing, an allegation Eritrea has repeatedly denied. The reported drone strikes have added a humanitarian dimension to the political and military crisis.

The mayor of Alamata said the schools hit were unoccupied because the academic year had not yet begun, but said the strikes caused panic and psychological trauma in the town. Tigrayan authorities later accused Addis Ababa of launching an open invasion on residents of the region, while the federal government has not publicly addressed the specific allegations in the supplied material. What remains unclear is who now has full operational control of Mekelle airport and whether flight suspensions will continue.

It is also not clear whether the reported strikes in Alamata are part of a broader campaign or isolated attacks. The next developments to watch are any official response from the federal government, further statements from Tigrayan authorities and whether the AU-mediated peace deal can withstand the latest escalation.