Rubio warns Iraq risks fragmentation unless armed groups come under state control after UNGA meeting

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that Iraq could face fragmentation unless armed factions are brought under state control. He made the remarks in New York on Wednesday after meeting Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. Rubio said Washington had no doubt about al-Zaidi's commitment to disarming armed groups, but described the task as a major and difficult challenge.

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Rubio said at least three armed groups had disarmed and joined the national government, while at least one remained far less cooperative. He argued that bringing all weapons under state control would prevent what he described as independent forces from operating in ways that could weaken the country. The comments were made to reporters at the Palace Hotel in New York City, following the meeting held on Tuesday night.

The warning highlights a long-running problem for Iraq: the state's struggle to consolidate authority over armed factions that operate alongside, and sometimes outside, official institutions. The issue is especially sensitive because some of these groups are widely seen as aligned with Iran, giving the dispute both domestic security and wider regional significance. In practical terms, the question is not only whether weapons are surrendered, but whether political and economic influence can also be brought under central control.

The term "Balkanisation" refers to a country breaking into smaller rival units, often along ethnic or religious lines. In Iraq's case, the phrase has often been used to describe fears of deeper fragmentation within the state rather than an immediate territorial split. Rubio's comments suggest concern that parallel armed structures could continue to erode the authority of the federal government if they remain outside full state oversight.

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Analysts quoted in the report said the challenge is structural rather than temporary. One described the armed groups as operating inside federal Iraq with near impunity, while also serving as channels for pro-Iranian interests through political influence, parallel economic networks and oil smuggling. That assessment points to a broader problem for Baghdad: even when some factions formally integrate, the underlying networks of power may remain intact.

The meeting between Rubio and al-Zaidi also underlines the importance of Iraq's relationship with Washington at a time when security and sovereignty remain closely linked. The United States has repeatedly pressed for stronger state control over armed actors in Iraq, while Iraqi leaders have had to balance that pressure against internal political realities. The issue matters beyond Iraq because instability there can affect regional security, energy flows and the wider contest for influence involving Iran and the United States.

The report did not provide a detailed timeline for which groups had disarmed or how the process would be enforced. It also did not say what specific commitments, if any, were made during the meeting in New York. What remains unclear is whether the Iraqi government can extend control over all armed factions, and whether the current effort will produce lasting integration or only partial compliance.

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