Danish intelligence warns Russia could launch limited attack on NATO country within months
Danish intelligence has warned that Russia could carry out a limited military attack against a NATO country in the coming months. The assessment, published on Thursday, said there was a low but growing risk of action against NATO infrastructure supporting Ukraine. It also said Moscow could attempt a limited incursion into a neighbouring country using a small number of troops, potentially operating without insignia.
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The warning came hours after a fire at a Starlink satellite station in central Poland, which local authorities described as an act of sabotage. Poland's deputy prime minister said the blaze in the Masovian voivodeship had been deliberately designed to disable the station and had disrupted internet access for several institutions, including the Ukrainian military. He said it had not been established who was responsible, but added that many signs suggested it aligned with Russia's new doctrine of attack.
The Danish report said Russia was expected to intensify hybrid attacks against European countries in the coming months, with greater consequences for those targeted. It pointed to destructive cyber-attacks that could cripple societal functions, as well as other forms of pressure on states supporting Ukraine. The warning comes amid a series of suspected Russian sabotage incidents across European infrastructure linked to the war.
The assessment is significant because it comes from a NATO member and adds to growing concern among European governments about the risk of spillover from the war in Ukraine. Starlink has become a key part of Ukraine's military communications, so any disruption to related infrastructure has wider operational implications. The report also reflects a broader debate among European intelligence chiefs over how soon Russia might move from hybrid activity to more direct action.
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Earlier this month, Germany publicly blamed Russia for an attempted drone attack on Leipzig/Halle airport, while other incidents, including fires at drone factories and sabotage targeting rail infrastructure, have also been investigated for possible links to Moscow. Russia has denied involvement in such attacks. European officials have said they are assessing whether these incidents form part of a wider pattern of pressure on countries backing Ukraine.
What remains unclear is whether the warning will be followed by any immediate change in NATO security posture or public response from Russia. The Danish assessment did not identify a specific target country or give a precise timeline beyond the coming months. The main question now is whether European governments treat the warning as evidence of an escalating threat or as part of an already established pattern of hybrid warfare.
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