Canada's Carney says he has examined remote risk of US military attack amid tensions with Washington

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said he examined the possibility of a US military attack against Canada, describing it as an extreme tail risk. His comments were made in an interview published on Wednesday and come as trade and sovereignty tensions between Ottawa and Washington continue to deepen. The remarks place an unusual national-security question inside a broader dispute that has already been shaped by tariffs, collapsed trade talks and repeated political rhetoric about Canada's future.

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Carney said the scenario was so unlikely that it should still be considered in risk planning, but not as a forecast of war. He described it as an event with a very low probability but potentially severe consequences, adding that it would be irresponsible not to consider it. The former head of the Bank of England framed the issue as a matter of risk management rather than an indication that Canada expects conflict.

Experts cited in the report said the comments do not mean Canada is preparing for war, but they do show that the possibility has been considered at the highest level. The immediate backdrop is a prolonged trade dispute that has already affected key sectors of the Canadian economy. The United States imposed a 25 percent tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico after Donald Trump returned to the White House in 2025, saying the measures would remain until both countries did more to curb fentanyl flows into the US.

Although the two neighbours initially reached a 30-day pause, the tariffs were later reimposed on Canada in early March after Washington said Ottawa had not done enough. Further pressure followed in July 2025, when Trump threatened to raise tariffs to 35 percent unless Canada dropped its digital services tax, which it later agreed to do. The dispute matters because Canada's economy is tightly linked to the United States, making any escalation especially consequential.

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The report says 72 percent of Canada's $556bn in goods exports went to the US in 2025, underlining how exposed Canadian trade is to policy changes in Washington. Canada is also the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminium to the US, and it was hit by separate 25 percent global tariffs on those metals imposed by Trump in March 2025. Trade talks later collapsed in August, and both sides imposed new tit-for-tat tariffs, including 50 percent taxes on $20bn of Canadian goods and matching Canadian measures on US goods.

The political context has also been shaped by Trump's repeated comments about Canada becoming a US state. The report says he has made much of Canada's dependence on the American market, including saying in 2025 that Canada would be better off as a 51st state. That rhetoric has added a sovereignty dimension to an already strained bilateral relationship.

In that setting, Carney's remarks reflect a broader effort to think through low-probability, high-impact risks rather than a claim that military confrontation is imminent. What remains unclear is whether the two governments can stabilise the relationship after months of tariff escalation and failed negotiations. The report does not suggest Canada is preparing for war, and it gives no indication of any immediate military threat.

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