Middle East crude exports rise to seven-month high as Qatar LNG disruptions continue

Middle East crude oil exports rose in September to their highest monthly level since the Iran war began seven months ago. Preliminary data from Kpler put regional exports at 16.3 million barrels a day, even as the conflict continued to disrupt shipping and energy flows across the Gulf. The increase was driven in large part by Saudi Arabia, while some Qatar-linked liquefied natural gas tankers also resumed crossings of the Strait of Hormuz after no visible crossings were recorded in August.

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The regional export figure was still about 3.2 million barrels a day below the 19.5 million recorded in February. Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the increase, with exports rising from 2.45 million barrels a day in August to around 5.4 million in September. Flows through Hormuz were projected to reach about 9.7 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia sent additional crude from Gulf terminals after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea.

The regional total also includes oil shipped from ports outside the strait. The gas picture remained more fragile. Normal LNG exports have not resumed, and QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions for some customers in Europe and Asia.

Edison said it had received a new notice extending force majeure until early December, and another six LNG cargoes due at Italy's Adriatic LNG terminal will not be delivered. That brings the number of missed cargoes since April to 35, with Edison saying it has replaced 23 of them, mainly with gas from the United States. Edison's 25-year contract with QatarEnergy supplies 6.4 billion cubic metres of gas a year, equal to around 10% of Italy's total consumption.

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The developments matter because the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. Any sustained disruption can affect crude and gas supplies well beyond the Gulf, especially for European and Asian buyers that rely on long-term LNG contracts. The latest figures also show how producers are adapting by rerouting crude and using alternative terminals, even as the conflict continues to shape shipping patterns and commercial risk.

The disruption began after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February in the opening salvo of the war, which sharply reduced traffic through Hormuz. The conflict has also seen both the US and Iran target commercial ships in and around the strait, adding to uncertainty for tanker operators and buyers. Qatar-linked deliveries have been among the most closely watched because Qatar is a major LNG supplier to Europe and Asia, and force majeure gives companies a legal basis to suspend contractual obligations when events outside their control prevent delivery.

What remains unclear is how long the higher crude flows can be sustained and whether LNG deliveries will normalise before the end of the year. Some customers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have been told that delivery suspensions will continue through November, while QatarEnergy's latest notice extends force majeure into early December. The next developments to watch are whether more cargoes are rerouted, whether pipeline repairs or security conditions improve, and whether diplomatic efforts can reduce the risk to shipping through Hormuz.

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