Serbia's snap parliamentary election becomes a test of Vucic's grip on power

Serbia is heading into a snap parliamentary election on October 25 that could determine whether President Aleksandar Vucic's Serbian Progressive Party can extend its long hold on power. The vote has become a central test of the country's political direction after months of anti-government protests. It also comes at a moment when the opposition is fragmented and a student-backed challenge has gained unusual momentum.

The election was brought forward from late 2027, making it an early and unexpected contest. Vucic resigned from the presidency in September, before the end of his second and final constitutional term, and is now leading the SNS campaign for prime minister. That move has made the parliamentary race the main arena for his effort to retain political influence before a separate presidential election must still be held.

The immediate trigger for the wider protest movement was the collapse of a concrete canopy at a railway station in Novi Sad in November 2024, which killed 16 people. What began as demands for accountability over the disaster developed into a broader campaign against alleged corruption and the government's handling of the tragedy. Students became the driving force behind the mobilisation, organising some of Serbia's largest demonstrations since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic.

The main challenger is the student-backed Student List-Students Win, which brings together candidates with little or no previous political experience, including academics, teachers and other professionals. Its campaign is focused on restoring the rule of law, ending corruption and rebuilding institutions. It has deliberately avoided divisive issues such as Kosovo, European Union membership and relations with Russia, which have often dominated Serbian politics.

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The contest matters because the SNS has governed Serbia since 2012 and has built a 14-year grip on power. The election is therefore being watched not only as a domestic political test, but also as a measure of whether a new protest movement can translate street mobilisation into parliamentary strength. The result could shape how much room Vucic has to manage the next phase of Serbia's political transition.

There are also signs that the traditional opposition is struggling to respond. Some parties have chosen not to run and instead support the student list, while others are contesting the election but may fail to clear the threshold for parliament. Analysts quoted in the reporting say the political dynamic has changed from the ground up, with young people becoming the core of the country's largest social mobilisation in decades.

That shift has added uncertainty to a race that was not supposed to happen until much later. What remains unclear is whether the student-backed list can convert public anger into enough votes to challenge the SNS effectively. It is also not yet clear how much support Vucic's strategy will retain after his move from the presidency to the campaign for prime minister.

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