Iran warns of market fallout from any new Israeli attack amid Strait of Hormuz talks

Iran has warned that any new Israeli-led attack would have a devastating impact on international markets, as votes were being counted in an Israeli election that could shape the next phase of the regional war. The warning came as Tehran said it was discussing a seven-day plan with mediators to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The strait is one of the world's most important energy routes and has been at the centre of the wider confrontation.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the risk of economic damage from any Israeli military action in the Persian Gulf remained a major concern for both gas suppliers and consumers. He linked the warning to recent discussions at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in Moscow. In the same remarks, he said Iran was in close and ongoing contact with intermediaries to review ideas that could allow the plan to be implemented in less than a week.

The row comes against the backdrop of direct fighting between Iran and Israel for the first time in their history after decades of hostility. Under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to topple Iran's government, the two sides have moved from long-running shadow conflict to open war. The election in Israel gave voters a chance to judge Mr Netanyahu's right-wing government while US and Israeli threats of renewed attacks against Iran were mounting.

The conflict has already severely disrupted energy shipments from Gulf countries after Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which around a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas used to travel. Iran has restricted passage and regularly attacks vessels that try to cross without its authorisation. In response, the United States has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports in an effort to squeeze the country's economy, adding another layer of pressure to an already fragile regional energy system.

The latest warning matters because any escalation around the strait could quickly affect global fuel supplies and prices. The passage is a critical chokepoint for oil and gas exports from the Gulf, so even limited disruption can have wider economic consequences. That is why Tehran's comments about reopening the strait, and about a short timetable for ending the war, are being watched closely by governments and energy markets.

There are still major uncertainties, including whether the mediators involved can secure any agreement and whether the election result in Israel will alter the course of the conflict. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Washington told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections on 3 November, although it said President Donald Trump had not made a final decision. For now, the key issue is whether diplomacy can reduce the risk of further attacks and restore safer passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

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