US midterms enter final stretch as early voting tops 43 million

With three days left before the US midterm elections, early voting has passed 43 million ballots and both parties are making a final campaign push. Democrats are leading in national congressional ballot polling, while President Donald Trump is set to hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa before Election Day on Tuesday. The closing phase of the campaign comes as voters continue to cast ballots in person and by mail across the country.

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According to the latest national congressional ballot average cited in the reporting, Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points, 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent. A separate Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday found that 44 percent of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31 percent who expect Republicans to keep control. Expectations for the Senate were closer, with 39 percent expecting a Democratic majority and 36 percent a Republican one.

An Associated Press analysis released on Friday said more than 43 million Americans had voted early in person or returned mail ballots five days before Election Day. That is nearly 10 million more than at the same point before the 2022 midterms, with some of the largest increases in states with competitive Senate races. In Texas, more than 6.3 million people had voted early as of Wednesday, up from 4.2 million at the same point in 2022, while Georgia had recorded more than 2.5 million ballots by Friday morning.

The polling and turnout figures matter because they shape expectations for control of the House and Senate, the two chambers at the centre of the midterm contest. A large Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling suggests the lower chamber is more likely to change hands, while the Senate remains more uncertain. That split would have implications for the next phase of the legislative agenda and for how much either party can advance its priorities after the vote.

The final days of campaigning are also being watched closely because they can influence turnout in closely contested states. Trump's planned rallies in Kansas and Iowa are part of a broader effort by both parties to mobilise supporters before polls close. The surge in early voting suggests many Americans have already made their choice, but the remaining days still matter in states where margins are expected to be narrow.

The current race is unfolding against the backdrop of a highly competitive national environment, with polling averages and early voting totals both being used to gauge momentum. The reporting also points to a contrast between the House and Senate contests, with analysts saying the lower chamber appears more likely to shift than the upper chamber. That makes the final stretch especially important for candidates trying to shape expectations and drive turnout.

What remains unclear is how the early voting surge will translate into final results, and whether the polling lead for Democrats will hold through Election Day. It is also not yet clear how much Trump's final rallies will affect turnout in the states he is visiting. The key questions now are whether the House flips, whether the Senate changes hands, and how closely the final outcome matches the current polling picture.

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