Trump weakened after US midterms, raising concern over more erratic foreign policy

Democrats have swept the 2026 US midterm elections, taking control of both chambers of Congress and winning governorships across the country. The result is a major domestic setback for President Donald Trump and leaves him facing the final two years of his term with a weakened political position. The immediate question in Washington and European capitals is whether that loss of authority will make his foreign policy more unpredictable.

The supporting material says the president was not on the ballot, but voters delivered a strong rebuke to his administration. It also says Trump now faces a hostile Congress, with Democrats gaining greater influence over federal spending and oversight. That shift is expected to constrain his domestic agenda while leaving him more room to act abroad, where presidents traditionally have wider discretion.

European officials and lawmakers quoted in the material say they are watching the change closely. One EU diplomat said Trump could become more of a "mad dog" than a "lame duck," suggesting that political weakness at home may not translate into restraint overseas. A centre-left member of the European Parliament who chairs the legislature's delegation for relations with the United States said Trump could pursue an even more erratic foreign policy over the next two years, with consequences for Europe, Ukraine and the Middle East.

The concern matters because the European Union has already spent two years dealing with shocks from Washington over security, trade and energy. The article frames the midterm result as a possible trigger for a more aggressive effort by Trump to reclaim the initiative and secure his legacy. That could make transatlantic relations more volatile at a time when Europe is already exposed to decisions taken in Washington.

Energy policy is one of the clearest areas of concern. The material says the war in Iran has plunged Europe into an energy crisis, and that EU diplomats and lawmakers see de-escalation between Washington and Tehran as a pressing priority. A Romanian centre-right member of the European Parliament said the elections themselves will not lower energy prices, and argued that what matters is whether the United States and Iran move towards de-escalation.

The same source says Europe's biggest breakthrough would be an agreement between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It says Iran has largely blocked the shipping route since the war began on 28 February, apart from a brief reopening in June. Severe restrictions on shipping are said to be continuing to drive up energy prices, making the conflict a direct economic issue for European governments and consumers.

The article also links the election result to wider questions about US policy on Ukraine and the Middle East. With Democrats controlling Congress, Trump may face more pressure over federal spending and the conduct of foreign policy, even if he retains significant executive powers. That combination could sharpen tensions between the White House and lawmakers while increasing uncertainty for allies and adversaries alike.

What remains unclear is how Trump will respond in practice, and whether the new balance of power in Congress will moderate or intensify his approach abroad. The next stage to watch is how he handles Ukraine, the Middle East and relations with Iran under a more hostile legislature. For Europe, the key issue is whether a weakened president becomes more constrained at home or more willing to take risks overseas.

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