US midterm results spark fears in Israel over future of bilateral ties

Israel's political establishment is reacting with concern after the latest US midterm results, with some figures warning that the outcome could mark a generational shift in relations between the two countries. The debate has been sharpened by the fact that Israel's ties with the United States became a campaign issue in races across America. Israeli commentators and opposition politicians are now openly questioning how much support can be assumed in Washington going forward.

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A prominent columnist in Israel's largest-selling newspaper described the moment as a "generational sea change" and said the Netanyahu government had "sown the wind and reaped the tsunami." Opposition leaders have also blamed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with one saying the results showed "just how toxic Netanyahu has become" among both Democrats and Republicans. Netanyahu has not publicly responded, while one US official familiar with the situation said Israel's political establishment had understood that things were shifting, but not how quickly. The immediate concern in Israel is not only the election result itself, but the way the campaign unfolded.

Many Democratic candidates were sharply critical of Israel's actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, while the costs of the joint US-Israeli war on Iran became a major issue for many voters. US Vice-President JD Vance also cited the relationship with Israel as one of four reasons voters had deserted the party, reinforcing the sense in Israel that the alliance is now being discussed in Washington as a political liability as well as a strategic asset. That matters because the US relationship has long been central to Israel's security, diplomacy and military planning.

For decades, Israeli leaders have treated bipartisan American support as a foundation of national policy, even as disagreements have surfaced over settlements, Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. The current reaction suggests that some in Israel now fear that support may be becoming more conditional, especially if domestic US politics continue to move in a more critical direction on Israel policy. The concern is heightened by the wider regional context.

The article notes that the joint US-Israeli war on Iran was already a factor in the campaign, and that the US president blamed that war for the Republican rout. That places Israel's leadership in a more exposed position, because the war is widely seen as having been promoted by Netanyahu to the US president. It also means the election result is being read in Israel not just as a domestic American setback, but as a possible warning about future backing for Israeli policy in the Middle East.

Israeli analysts say the speed of the shift may be as important as the result itself. Political and security analyst Yaakov Katz said the message from Vance was potentially worse than the midterm outcome, because it suggested that American voters want their leaders to change their position on Israel. He said Israelis do not fully understand where this is going, reflecting a broader uncertainty about whether the current backlash is temporary or the start of a longer realignment.

For now, the main unanswered question is how this will affect practical cooperation between the two governments. Netanyahu has not commented publicly, and there is no indication yet of any immediate policy change from Washington. What remains unclear is whether the criticism seen during the campaign will translate into new pressure on Israel over Gaza, the West Bank or Iran, and whether the alliance will continue to enjoy the same level of bipartisan support in future US elections.

The coming days are likely to bring more political reaction in Israel, especially from opposition figures and commentators who see the result as evidence of a deeper problem in Netanyahu's foreign policy. The key issue to watch is whether US leaders begin to adjust their language or policy toward Israel in response to the election message. If that happens, the result could have consequences well beyond the midterms themselves, affecting the tone and substance of one of the Middle East's most important alliances.

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