Lebanon hopeful as US-Iran ceasefire is said to include country, but doubts remain

People in Lebanon woke on Monday to reports of a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran that is said to include Lebanon. The announcement has raised hopes among some displaced residents that they may be able to return home, including in the south of the country. But statements from Israeli officials have cast doubt on whether fighting in southern Lebanon is actually over.

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According to the supplied report, Iranian and Pakistani officials said the deal includes Lebanon, and Pakistan's prime minister described it as covering the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon". Lebanese officials, however, urged caution. The Lebanese army said people should exercise care when returning home, while officials told residents of border villages not to go back yet until the security situation becomes clearer.

The uncertainty comes against the backdrop of a conflict that has already caused major displacement and destruction in Lebanon. The report says Israel has killed at least 3,783 people in Lebanon and wounded 11,699 since the escalation described in the row, while more than 1.2 million people have been displaced from the south, Beirut's southern suburbs and villages in the Bekaa Valley. It also says villages have been razed and that Israeli forces occupy large swathes of southern Lebanon, with recent evacuation orders and bombing of Tyre and Nabatieh adding to the damage.

The immediate significance of the ceasefire claim is that it touches one of the region's most volatile fronts. Lebanon has been caught up in the wider confrontation involving Israel, Hezbollah, Iran and the United States, and any pause in hostilities would have direct consequences for civilians, border security and regional diplomacy. The fact that officials are already giving mixed signals suggests that the practical meaning of the announcement remains unsettled.

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The report places the latest developments in the context of repeated violations and renewed escalation. It says Israel intensified its war on Lebanon on 2 March, after Hezbollah fired six rockets at Israel in response to what it described as more than 10,000 Israeli violations of the 2024 ceasefire. It also says Hezbollah's attack followed the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening salvoes of the US-Israeli war on Iran, showing how events in Lebanon are tied to broader regional conflict dynamics.

For civilians, the question is not only whether a ceasefire has been announced, but whether it can be trusted on the ground. One displaced resident from the southern village of Jwaya, Ali Saleh, said he would not be heading back because his house had been hit and his financial situation was difficult. Videos on Monday showed some Lebanese people returning to areas in the south, but the report makes clear that border-village residents have been told to wait for clearer security conditions.

The Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, is described as welcoming the announcement, while the Lebanese army has urged caution. The report also says Aoun has been trying to reimpose the authority of the Lebanese state, underlining the political stakes of any ceasefire arrangement. What remains unclear is whether the reported deal will hold, how it will be enforced, and whether Israeli statements will translate into continued military activity.

The next developments to watch are official clarification from the parties involved, conditions for safe return, and whether displaced families begin moving back in significant numbers.