Russian state banker fired after warning economy is lagging and war costs are rising

A senior Russian state banker has been dismissed after publicly warning that the country is falling behind major economies and would not win a prolonged economic war with Ukraine. Andrei Klepach, the chief economist at VEB, was fired days after Russian media reported on remarks he made in May to fellow economists. The dismissal comes amid continued scrutiny of how Russia's wartime economy is coping with sanctions, military spending and wider pressure on growth.

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Klepach had served as chief economist at the state-controlled development bank since 2014. In the comments reported earlier this month, he said Russia was falling behind China and the United States and, in some respects, Ukraine. He also warned that the strain of war would eventually lead to a social crisis that could emerge unexpectedly.

VEB did not give a reason for his removal. The remarks were notable because they directly challenged the public line from the Kremlin that Russia is successfully absorbing the economic impact of the war. Klepach said expectations of an imminent collapse in Ukraine were misplaced and argued that a long war of attrition would not end in Russia's favour.

He said there was an illusion that Ukraine would quickly collapse, adding that it had not happened and would not happen, while Russia's costs were rising. The firing also points to the sensitivity of economic criticism inside Russia's state system. A person described as an acquaintance of Klepach said his departure was linked to his harsh assessments of the country's economic and political development, which could not align with the corporation's position.

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Another Russian outlet, citing sources, reported that the dismissal was ordered from the Kremlin and tied directly to the May speech. Those claims have not been independently confirmed in the supplied material. VEB is one of Russia's major state-controlled development institutions, and Klepach's removal is significant because it involves a senior economist speaking openly about wartime pressure.

His comments were described as a rare acknowledgment from within the Russian establishment that the economy is under strain. They also come at a time when the government is trying to maintain confidence in its ability to sustain the war effort while managing domestic economic risks. What remains unclear is whether the dismissal was formally ordered for political reasons or whether it reflected an internal decision by the bank.

VEB has not explained the move, and the supplied material does not confirm any official Kremlin statement. The key issue to watch is whether other senior figures in Russia's economic system face similar pressure after making public assessments that diverge from the official position.

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