Gaza ceasefire process at risk after Netanyahu rejects US peace plan

The Gaza ceasefire process is under renewed strain after a United States envoy warned that its collapse could become a "point of no return." Nickolay Mladenov, the high representative for Gaza on the US-backed Board of Peace, made the warning in a statement to the United Nations Security Council on Wednesday. His remarks came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly rejected Washington's 15-point peace plan for Gaza. According to the supplied material, Hamas has said it would hand over its weapons under the US roadmap, which was announced as part of efforts to move the ceasefire process forward.

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Hamas agreed to the plan on July 30, and the framework says weapons decommissioning would be supervised by an International Stabilization Force. That force is described as a nascent unit led by US Major General Jasper Jeffers and intended for deployment to Gaza if conditions calm. Mladenov told the council that a return to fighting would leave "no roadmap to return to," "no administration to deploy" and "nothing left on the ground to rebuild." He said that would not simply be a setback, but a point of no return for all sides.

The statement also said the emerging National Committee for the Administration of Gaza would be made up of independent Palestinian technocrats responsible for day-to-day civil service and humanitarian relief. The warning matters because the ceasefire architecture appears to depend on a sequence of linked political and security steps, including disarmament, transitional governance and an international stabilisation presence. If any of those elements fail, the process could lose the structure needed to move from a truce to a longer-term arrangement.

Netanyahu's rejection of the plan therefore raises questions about whether the current framework can survive without Israeli support. The broader context is the war that began on October 7, 2023, after attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in southern Israel killed about 1,200 people and took about 240 captive, according to the supplied material. Gaza's Ministry of Health said at least 73,422 Palestinians have been killed since then.

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It also said at least 1,288 Palestinians have been killed and 4,290 wounded since a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect in October, showing that the truce has already been marked by continued violence. What remains unclear is whether the US roadmap can still be implemented in the face of Netanyahu's rejection and the continuing dispute over disarmament and governance. It is also not clear when, or whether, the International Stabilization Force would be deployed.

The next developments to watch are any further statements from the Security Council, the Board of Peace, Hamas and the Israeli government on the future of the ceasefire process.

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