US drafting early post-war Middle East strategy focused on Iran and normalisation
The Trump administration has begun work on an early-stage post-war strategy for the Middle East, according to a report citing unnamed US officials and other sources familiar with the discussions. The reported plan is aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power by increasing pressure on Iran and expanding normalisation between Israel and neighbouring countries. It could also shape US policy in the region for the rest of Donald Trump's time in office.
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According to the report, three main pillars have been discussed. These include building a regional alignment among US allies to deter and constrain Iran, winding down the regional consequences of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel, and broadening the Abraham Accords while pursuing normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The discussions are said to remain in their early stages, and the plan has not been finalised.
The reported framework also includes possible US involvement as a guarantor for the regional alignment, as well as work toward a security agreement between Israel and Syria. Another element under discussion is the next phase of Trump's Gaza plan. The timing of the talks may be affected by upcoming midterm elections in the US and legislative elections in Israel, both of which could influence the political space for any regional deal.
The proposal matters because it would try to turn long-running US policy goals into a more structured regional framework. Successive US administrations have sought since the 1979 Iranian Revolution to limit Tehran's influence by strengthening ties with Gulf states and other partners. The reported plan suggests Washington may now be looking to formalise closer defence and security coordination among allies at a time when the regional balance is being reassessed amid the Iran war.
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A push for normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel has been a central US objective for years, but it has stalled. Riyadh has linked any move in that direction to tangible progress on Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian state. The reported strategy also builds on the Abraham Accords agreed in 2020 during Trump's first administration, which normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
What remains unclear is how far the administration is prepared to go in turning these ideas into policy, and whether the reported elements can be reconciled with the political constraints in Washington, Jerusalem and Riyadh. It is also not known how much detail has been developed on the proposed security arrangement with Syria or the next stage of the Gaza plan. The coming months will show whether the discussions become a formal regional initiative or remain an internal policy framework.
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